Just eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
