A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
